ISRAEL AND PALESTINE

The state of Gaza peace negotiations as of 8 October 2025 

…a lot of headway – Turkish FM Hakan Fidan

On 29 September 2025, President Trump launched his 20-point peace plan for Gaza, available here in PDF format. Indirect Israeli-Hamas talks on the plan have been ongoing in Egypt since 5 October, with Qatari and Egyptian mediators being joined on October 8th by U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and the Prime Minister of Qatar. As of mid-afternoon EDT, Reuters was citing Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan that the negotiations  had made “a lot of headway”. CNN, for its part, was citing “multiple sources” that a deal could be reached within the next 48 hours.

The plan – negotiated between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu and then presented as an ultimatum to Hamas – is fraught with difficulties. The best analysis we have seen of those challenges, and how they might be overcome, is contained in the Arab Digest Newsletter for October 7, 2025. We include it here in full, with the kind permission of Arab Digest.

RI President Peggy Mason comments:

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Two Years On: Gaza’s Agony Deepens as US Peace Plan Hangs in the Balance

Arab Digest Newsletter / October 7, 2025

Summary: after two years of devastating war, Gaza faces a catastrophic humanitarian crisis marked by systematic violence against children and collapsed infrastructure, with over 60,000 Palestinians killed. A new U.S.-backed peace plan offers a fragile diplomatic opening, but its success hinges on overcoming deep political obstacles, including Israeli resistance and Hamas’s refusal to disarm without guarantees.

Catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza

Two years after Israel launched its military offensive in Gaza the humanitarian situation is catastrophic, with children bearing the deepest scars. Since October 2023, over 60,000 Palestinians have been killed – more than 18,400 were children and 9,700 were women. Life expectancy has plummeted from 75.5 to 40.5 years, a devastating 46% drop, not accounting for indirect deaths from starvation or denied medical care.

The future of Gazans and Gaza itself hangs in the balance

Palestinian women are deliberately humiliated, beaten and sexually harassed. Children are systematically targeted, with reports confirming Israeli forces snipe children – even toddlers – holding white flags, with fatal head and abdominal wounds commonly documented. Daily, an average of 10 children undergo amputations, often without anesthesia due to blocked medical supplies. Their future – and that of Gaza itself – hangs by a thread.

Trump presents Hamas with an ultimatum – accept the plan or else

Last month, during the UN General Assembly U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a 21-point peace plan with the potential to end the conflict. Drafted without Hamas’s involvement, his proposal aims to secure a ceasefire, facilitate Israeli withdrawal, and place Gaza under an international board chaired by Trump himself. Shortly after, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu introduced substantial revisions, turning the proposal into what many described as a non-negotiable diktat. Trump then presented Hamas with an ultimatum, placing the group in an acutely difficult position.

Accepting the Trump proposal outright was political suicide

Accepting the proposal outright would have meant political suicide – transforming Gaza into a quasi-colonial entity governed by figures like Tony Blair and Jared Kushner, severed from the West Bank, and reducing Palestinians to subordinate roles. Rejection, on the other hand, risked alienating international stakeholders and betraying a population desperate for respite from violence and starvation.

Hamas accepts key elements of the plan

In a deft diplomatic move, Hamas accepted key elements of the plan while calling for clarifications and deferring other points to Palestinian national consensus and international law. This allowed them to appear constructive, avoid outright rejection, and shift responsibility back onto Israel. Hamas’s acceptance also vindicates the strategic logic behind the October 7 attacks, which made Palestinian statehood a renewed subject of international discourse. Now, as negotiations unfold, the central question remains: can this agreement succeed where so many others have failed, or is it destined to become another chapter in a long history of broken promises?

Trump’s plan seeks a definitive end to the war.

What’s different about Trump’s plan is that unlike past ceasefires, which often served as temporary pauses, this one claims to seek a definitive end to the war. It also emerges amid shifting global opinion. Worldwide sympathy for Palestinians has grown substantially, and even traditionally staunch allies of Israel are now openly critical of its conduct. Within the U.S., public sentiment is increasingly vocal in demanding justice for Gaza, placing new pressure on Washington to act.

Disarmament and governance

The agreement, which is deliberately loose and laden with potential loopholes, hinges on two deeply contentious issues: disarmament and governance.

The demand for Hamas to lay down its weapons represents the most significant obstacle. From Hamas’s perspective, disarmament is tantamount to political suicide. Their weapons are not only a symbol of resistance but also, once the hostages have been released, their only leverage. History offers a sobering lesson: after the PLO disarmed in Lebanon in 1982, Palestinians were subjected to the Sabra and Shatila massacres. In Northern Ireland, the IRA did not fully decommission until years after the Good Friday Agreement, once political guarantees were in place.

No mechanisms in the plan to ensure Israeli compliance

This asymmetry all but invites sabotage.

Nothing in Trump’s plan ensures Israeli compliance after Palestinian disarmament. In fact, the agreement allows Israel to determine whether Hamas has sufficiently disarmed and to resume military operations if it decides otherwise. This asymmetry all but invites sabotage [by Israel].

Netanyahu’s survival likely depends on continued conflict

For Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, the war has always been intertwined with his political survival. Israel has hit both a military and psychological wall in Gaza. Casualties mount, domestic pressure grows, yet accepting this deal would likely fracture his ruling coalition and end his career. He has already vowed never to fully withdraw. His incentive is to prolong the conflict, and the agreement’s vague language offers him ample room to do so.

Hamas is aiming for long-term political legitimacy

Hamas, too, is fighting for relevance. Having achieved its central goal – forcing the Palestinian issue back onto the global stage – it now risks overplaying its hand. By accepting a technocratic governance model while insisting on its own inclusion, Hamas is positioning itself for long-term political legitimacy, much like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland.

Trump’s credibility is also on the line

The real test is whether Trump can compel Israel to adhere to the terms.

Trump has also put his credibility on the line, threatening Hamas with “all hell breaking loose” if it does not comply and explicitly ordering Israel to stop bombing. But Hamas does not respond to threats and Gaza has already endured hell. The real test is whether Trump can compel Israel to adhere to the terms.

History is not encouraging. No U.S. president has successfully pressured Israel into concessions that fundamentally challenge its security paradigm. The current U.S. administration remains strongly pro-Israel, and Trump’s own “deal of the century” in 2020 was widely criticised as one-sided. This plan, with its single deadline – 72 hours for hostage release – and lack of reference to international law, is flimsier still.

Israel’s goal remains the ethnic cleansing of Gaza

If the past is any guide, Israel will use the hostage exchange as a pretext to reset the terms, declare Hamas non-compliant, and resume hostilities. The goal openly stated by Israeli officials remains the ethnic cleansing of Gaza. This genocidal project enjoys broad popular support in Israel, and many leaders see this war as a historic opportunity.

But elements of the plan could lead to a better political future

Elements of the plan could, in theory, lead to a better political future. If implemented in good faith, international oversight and Arab investment could begin rebuilding Gaza and establish a foundation for eventual statehood. Figures like Al-Jolani in Syria – once designated a terrorist, now negotiating with U.S. officials – show that militant groups can transition into political actors.

Concrete guarantees and timelines are essential

But “ceasefire” has often been a trap in this conflict: a tactical pause used to regroup and intensify violence. Without concrete guarantees, maps of withdrawal, and a clear disarmament sequence tied to political progress, this agreement may simply become another stage in Gaza’s destruction.

Washington must pressure Israel with real consequences

Ultimately, success depends on Washington’s willingness to pressure Israel not with rhetoric, but with real consequences. If Trump is serious, he must be prepared to withhold aid, impose sanctions, and leverage diplomatic capital. Otherwise, this plan will join a long list of U.S.-led initiatives that promised peace but delivered only more suffering.

Two years of violence have left Gaza shattered and its people traumatised. As the world watches, the stakes could not be higher. Either the U.S. finally changes its approach or history repeats itself and Gaza continues to burn.

End of Arab Digest Newsletter for October 7, 2025

Whither Canada?

…Canada recognises the State of Palestine and offers our partnership in building the promise of a peaceful future for both the State of Palestine and the State of Israel. – PM Mark Carney

On 21 September 2025, the Prime Minister’s office released a statement announcing Canada’s official recognition of a Palestinian state. The United Kingdom, Australia and Portugal did the same. Speaking at the UN on 22 September, at a one-day summit hosted by France and Saudi Arabia on plans for a two-state solution, French President Macron also recognized a Palestinian state. 157 of the UN’s 193 UN member states now recognize the state of Palestine.

Equal security for Israel and Palestine

Canada’s recognition of a Palestinian state is welcome and long overdue, coming as it does in the face of ever-accelerating Israeli efforts to prevent a two-state solution from ever becoming a reality. What is missing, however, is the realization that the recognition of a Palestinian state carries with it the obligation to affirm the equal right to security of Israel and Palestine, in accordance with the sovereign equality of all states under the UN Charter and their fundamental right to security under international law

This failure to acknowledge the full consequences of Canada’s recognition of a Palestinian state is evident in the Global Affairs background documents on Canadian policy on key issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, ostensibly updated in light of that recognition. In fact, the very titles of certain subsections reveal the lack of equity when it comes to Palestinian versus Israeli security.

The first section of the background document is entitled “Support for Israel and its security” while the second section is entitled “Support for Palestinians”. While the section on Israel focuses entirely on its right “to assure its own security”, the only reference to security in the ensuing section on Palestine is the need to “demilitarize the Palestinian state,” which denies Palestine the right to assure its own security, while offering nothing in its place.

Canada must immediately update its policies on Israel and Palestine to fully reflect its historic recognition of a Palestinian state. The equal right to security of both Israel and Palestine must be a guiding principle of Canadian support for two-state solution going forward.

Prime Minister Carney’s reference to the ongoing Gaza peace negotiations

In the context of his statement marking two years since the Hamas attacks against Israel, Prime Minister Carney made this constructive comment about the ongoing Gaza peace negotiations, implicitly recognizing that Trump’s plan was a framework at best with many important details still to be agreed:

We urge all parties to immediately work to turn Hamas’ commitment of releasing all hostages into a reality and to negotiate the terms of peace.

We commend the Government of Canada for its long-overdue recognition of a Palestinian state and call upon it to act in accordance with that recognition by immediately affirming the equal right to security of both Israel and Palestine, as a fundamental principle guiding our efforts to support, promote and achieve a viable, enduring two-state solution.

We reiterate our previous calls for Canada to forthwith impose sanctions on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, and the Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff General Eyal Zamir, as evidence of our determination to take concrete steps to support the peace process and end Israel’s assault on Gaza.

[Editor’s note: Our promised blog post on the landmark advisory opinion issued on 23 July 2025 by the International Court of Justice on the obligations of States in respect of climate change will, hopefully, be available soon!]

Photo credit – Jaber Jehad (Gaza displacement); White House (Announcing 20-point plan).

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